If Israel Maintains a Military Presence in Gaza, Especially Along The Philadelphi Corridor, Egypt Will Likely Suspend Camp David Within the Next Six Months

And the Script for Confrontation Is Already Being Written

Picture this. You’re the president of a nation on the brink. Decades of decay have hollowed out your country. The economy? A carcass picked clean. Healthcare and education? Crumbling faster than cheap plaster. For ten long years, you’ve peddled the same promise to your weary people: "Hold fast. Prosperity is just months away." A gleaming future, you swore. A standard of living they could scarcely imagine.

Fast forward to 2025. The dream’s a nightmare.

You’re a regional pariah. As announced a few days ago, the IMF’s vital tranche of cash, scheduled for summer 2025, has been postponed to December 2025, and it may never come. At present, you have failed their tests. The begging bowl is out, but the world looks away. Humiliation stings daily.

Remember asserting your "right to self-defence"? The very next day, the leader upstream – busily building that dam, the one threatening to throttle your share of the Nile, your nation’s lifeline – sends a mocking invitation to its grand opening. Salt in the wound.

Worse still, the Yanks. Under Trump the First, you mattered. The White House rolled out the red carpet. Now? Radio silence. You’ve been supplanted by that Syrian man, Israel’s “man in Damascus” – a man labelled a terrorist just last week. Suddenly, he gets the cash, the calls, the clout. You? Left shuffling in the corridors, desperately seeking a lifeline as the economy teeters over the abyss.

On the left: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with President Trump and Syria’s President Ahmed Al Sharaa during President’s Trump Visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2025 (Photo credit: CBC). On the right: Preisdent Sisi with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and President Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia in 2018 (Photo Credit: Saudi Press Agency)

And back home? The trap. Your own army. Its generals aren’t just soldiers; they’re economic barons, entrenched deep in the nation’s financial marrow. Their vast, unaccountable empire is precisely what the IMF demands you dismantle. Privatise their assets. Cut them loose.

But the brass won’t budge. This empire is their pension, their power. So you’re stuck: defy the generals, risk a coup? Or appease them, guaranteeing economic meltdown? A vicious circle.

Then you remember. Tucked in your pocket, worn smooth from use, is the one card that always plays. Your escape hatch. Your political alchemy.

It’s the card that transforms economic catastrophe into patriotic sacrifice. The card that silences dissent with roaring crowds. The card that instantly reconciles the furious street with the grasping generals. The card that paints you – overnight – as the defiant nationalist hero, not the failed technocrat.

It’s the anti-Israel card.

In this article, I explain how, at present, 3 of 4 elements of an Indications and Warnings (I&W) framework signal that Egypt is likely to suspend the Camp David Accords within six months.